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  1. Power Shift - Chapter 8

    DIFFICULT CONVERSATIONS China’s growing power does not threaten Australia, but it does undermine the international order in Asia which has kept ... flow. First, to consider how we can best shape Asia’s future order to suit our interests. Second, to consider how Australia can ... the need for change. As Asia’s strategic plates shift, trying to preserve the order that has worked so well for us until now ... because the chances of moving American opinion on this issue are so small. That may underestimate both us and the Americans. America ... nuclear forces could increase suspicion and hostility between America and China. China has very few weapons capable of hitting the ...


  2. Power Shift - Chapter 1

    POWER SHIFT Australias Future between Washington and Beijing Hugh White There is a problem with ... understands Asia’s dynamics as well as anyone, avoided the issue as prime minister, worried that it might make voters uneasy. Tony Abbott ...


  3. Power Shift - Chapter 6

    AMERICA’S CHOICES America has three options for responding to China’s rise. It can withdraw from Asia, share power with China, or compete with it for primacy. The least likely choice for ... Over the next few decades, as the changing balance between the costs and benefits of American engagement becomes clearer, ... in Asia to prevent a similar massive threat emerging in future? It is not clear that it does. The Nazis and Soviets threatened to ... we need as the basis for a concert of power. That makes the issue of trust easier to manage, because at least all parties start by agreeing ... traditional allies in Asia through measures such as the US–Australia–Japan Trilateral Strategic Dialogue. Meanwhile China is ... unless somebody does something big to stop it. Power Shift - Chapter 6 ...


  4. Power Shift - Chapter 4

    CHINA’S CHOICES In the long run, economics is what counts in power politics. National power has many manifestations – military, political, ... in Asia, and that, obviously, is where the implications for Australia will play out too.  In Asia, China’s growing power undermines ... it also wants to live in peace. There is an inherent tension between these two aims: the more China grasps for influence, the greater the ... but China’s leaders do not accept that it will be true in future. They believe a new order could be built that keeps Asia peaceful and ... less free to run their own countries in their own way, but Washington insists its views are given full consideration on any issues that ... be prepared to sit down with China as an equal? Power Shift - Chapter 4 ...


  5. Power Shift - Sources

    ... era”: see, for example, Hedley Bull, “The New Balance of Power in Asia and the Pacific,” For eign Affairs , Vol. 49, No. 4, July ... was not expecting this when he took office”: Howard’s complex approach to China is described in Paul Kelly, The March of Patriots ... London; New York, 2008. “Sceptics about China’s future doubt it”: see, for example, John Lee, Will China Fail? The Limits ... “The issue of Soviet–American relations is in essence”: from George Kennan, ... and the PRC – Managing China’s Rise: Policy Options for Australia,” Melbourne Asia Policy Paper No. 5, November 2004. Available at < ... fully developed this idea in “Stopping a Nuclear Arms Race Between the US and China,” Lowy Institute for International Policy, August ... Studies, Sydney, 1998. David L. Shambaugh (ed.), Power Shift: China and Asia’s New Dynamics , University of Cali-fornia Press, ...


  6. Power Shift - Chapter 7

    HOME ALONE? Australia is a status quo power. We like the way Asia has worked until now. ... powerhouse of the region and the locomotive for Australias prosperity. These principles are important, but they leave all the hard ... to some of the possibilities, this is far from the worst future Australia might face. Even so, it would be very different from the world ... would pay a high price for resisting Chinese pressure on any issue that mattered to them.  It is much more likely, however, that if ... conflicting ambitions will be done, if at all, bilaterally between the big states themselves. So middle and smaller powers have to choose ... accommodation as a betrayal of principle.  Power Shift - Chapter 7 ...


  7. Power Shift - Chapter 9

    ... leadership, or slowly withdrawing from Asia. What would Australia do then? What are the options for Australia in circumstances so ... for a long time. They now loom, very important for our future, and quite urgent. Key decisions need to be made soon about Australias role in this very different Asian century, because options will begin to ... It has some attractions. The US will remain a very strong power, so it would still be able to offer us a lot of protection against China, ... in Asia. If the next few decades see a strategic contest between China, Japan and India, then China might well look for allies, and ... we will see, it would be neither easy nor cheap. Another issue is that our geostrategic situation is different from either ... essay are available at the end of the book. Power Shift - Chapter 9 ...


  8. Trivial Pursuit - Chapter 11

    POWER SHIFT Correspondence Michael Wesley With Power Shift , Hugh ... Australians that there are issues crucial to our long-term future that need to be discussed. And he has staked out the big question that ... up and go home. Rather than live with these extremes, it’s in Australias interest to convince both to share leadership in this region. ... in recent years, we’ve seen relationships tighten between America and its allies in the Pacific; new friendships form between Washington and former antagonists such as India and Vietnam; and most ...


  9. Trivial Pursuit - Chapter 12

    POWER SHIFT Correspondence Lyric Hughes Hale I have been concerned for some time that Australia has become too complacent about Chinese growth, too reliant on the pleasant narrative of an unlimited upside to China’s economy and its demand for commodities. It is critical to ask the question, ... world might find themselves on opposite sides of a conflict between the two Koreas. But China is a reluctant protector of the North Korean ... Australia is and will be courted by both Beijing and Washington. As long as resources are critical to growth, Australia will ... the regional dialogue so that unreasonable reactions to future conditions do not escalate. Australia is not a helpless observer, not a ...


  10. Firing Line - Chapter 4

    ... from the eaves of open houses and leeching down the city’s air-conditioned towers soaked by mid-afternoon downpours. Asia’s history ... of Southeast Asia. Dotted everywhere are reminders of Australias conflicts past: a Timorese gift shop near Nightcliff beach, the ... Australias most northerly military airfield. Asia’s future laces the town too. In Darwin Harbour the hulking tanks and terminals of ... conduct operational patrolling. And in Darwin the shifting power relativities of Asia are playing out. The city is not a strategic ... to the Darwin announcement must have come as a surprise to Washington. The US pivot to Asia, and especially Australias role in it, ... also carried the message that in any long-term competition between China and the United States, the US would lose. Former prime minister ...